Trump's presidency is being felt the
world over. A market in Delhi 7,000
miles from DC where new 50% tariffs have
jewelry trader Shabbam Jane seething.
Now people will start shifting to other
places. They will order products from
other places. Our jewelry sector and
other sectors are very good in
comparison. But after the 50% tax is
imposed, the prices will increase and
people will choose the cheaper options.
We have been doing this work for a long
time and now there will be a lot of
problems. Some items are exempt. Certain
pharmaceuticals and fuel products and
tech like mobile phones. But the bulk of
India's $90 billion exports market to
the US is now hit with additional import
taxes. Business owners like this shoe
manufacturer hope they can find buyers
elsewhere. The outcome though might not
be what President Trump had intended. We
are looking at the Russian market also.
Again we are looking at the CIS
countries also. Again we have the AAN
countries also we have uh the south
south America also it's a huge market.
They have to understand we are nobody's
going to surrender in any any
blackmailing. Nobody can going to sell
anything.
Talk of a pivot towards Russia is of
course the irony for Trump's tariffs are
intended to persuade India to stop
buying Russian oil which the US says is
financing Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The Russians use the money to build more
arms and kill Ukrainians. And so
American taxpayers have to provide more
aid military style to the Ukrainians. So
that's that's insane.
The president has applied aggressive
economic leverage, for example, the
secondary tariffs on India to try to
make it harder for the Russians to get
rich from their oil economy. He's tried
to make it clear that Russia can be
reinvited into the world economy if they
stop the killing. But they're going to
continue to be isolated if they don't
stop the killing. The Indians cry
hypocrite sending their foreign minister
to Moscow last week and accusing the
Americans and Europeans of continuing
their own business with Russia when it
suits them. For example, natural gas.
Today's meeting uh gives us uh an
occasion to uh discuss our political
relationship as well uh but also to
review our bilateral ties. uh so I look
forward to an exchange of views on the
on politics on trade on uh economic
investment defense science and
technology and of course
people-to-people exchanges
we have good results in cooperation in
the sphere of hydrocarbons and the
supply of Russian oil to the Indian
market and we have mutual interest in
implementing joint projects for the
extraction of energy resources including
in the Russian Federation in the Far
East and on the Arctic shelf.
So, Russia appears poised to step in as
the US moves away. This effigy of Trump
paraded along India's streets just a few
days ago. And the country's strongman
leader, Narendra Modi, with regional
elections looming in a couple months
tries to reassure voters that everything
will be all right.
My country's small-cale businessmen,
farmers, animal keepers. I keep on
promising to everyone again and again
that for Modi, your well-being is
paramount. When Modi met Trump earlier
this year, the US president lavished
praise on him. A very smart man and a
good friend, he said. And a note left in
the White House yesterday by Treasury
Secretary Scott Bassent appeared to
suggest the White House wouldn't
retaliate if Delhi reacted badly to the
tariff hike.
European Union very friendly. As recent
estimates suggest, Trump's tearing up of
international trade agreements could
earn the US half a trillion dollars. But
with Indian exporters bracing for sharp
declines, Washington may well ru the law
of unintended consequences. For next
week, China will host the leaders of
both India and Russia at a bricks
security meeting. and increasing US
protectionism may well be seen as an
imperative for the global south and
Russia to work together much more
closely.
Well, joining us to discuss what might
happen next is Manoj Caval Arammani
who's an analyst at the Takshilla
Institution which is a geopolitics
technology and public policy think tank
based in Karnataka, India. Thanks for
joining us sir. How do you think these
new 50% tariffs are going to affect
India, Indian business, Indian export?
Look, I think that there's no no two
ways around it. There's going to be an
impact on small businesses in India.
There's going to be an impact on a
select set of sectors which these
tariffs hit the worst, particularly
textiles, apparel. Some of them hit
auto, gems and jewelry. Um and some of
these sectors are labor intensive. So
there are likely to be job losses. Um
and I think we're already seeing that in
the reporting that's coming out from
different places in India that the
anticipation is that the order book's
going to be lean. Uh and you're going to
see some sort of job losses. Um just to
give you a broad overview, the tariffs
hit about 50 to 55% of Indian exports to
the United States. Um and the assessment
is that they would shave off anywhere
between 0.5% to a little bit more than
that of GDP growth. Uh but that but then
that's if they last for the year.
Are people angry and if they are are
they angry at Trump? Are they angry at
Modi?
There is a general sense of uh dismay
with US policy. Um I think the
anticipation in in India was that uh the
US and India have shared interests uh
and the both the governments are
talking. Um you know India was one of
the early countries in with Trump 2.0.
Trump called Modi a good man and a good
friend.
Yeah. And I think that you know there's
a certain bit of uh learning from there
in terms of how much investment one can
do in personal diplomacy with somebody
who is so mercurial.
The key is what happens next. We've got
this bricks uh meeting in Shanghai next
week where not just India and China get
the chance to sit down together, but
Russia as well, which is of course what
the US administration, what the the
Trump White House do not really want to
see. They don't want to see uh Russia
and Russian business interests gaining
out of this. What do you think is going
to happen?
Look, this is the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization meeting. uh it's a group
which is essentially focused on security
in central Asia. So I think that's
predominantly what the agenda of the
grouping is. I don't see Russia being a
particular export destination. Russia is
not a demand sync from an Indian
perspective. I I think that there are
opportunities to sell in China but those
require structural dialogue between
China and India to remove non-tariff
barriers that China has placed on Indian
products. Indian exp well it's a
dialogue process that's been that's just
resumed over the last year um we are
seeing both sides giving positive
indications to that they they want to
talk about this um so we'll wait and see
what happens um but I'm not terribly
optimistic because my sense is that if
you look at the data over the past year
just in 2025 Indian exports to China
have fallen by 15% while Indian imports
from China have continued to rise this
trade deficit has been a long-standing
concern for India my sense is that if
Beijing wants a normalized relationship
with India, it will try and address
these in some way or the other
particularly around non-tariff barriers
and and the big picture with Russia.
Obviously, we saw the red carpet
treatment in Anchorage and on the one
hand uh the Trump administration is is
punishing India for buying Russian uh
oil and and natural gas. But on on the
other hand, there is this risk that
actually Russia is pushed more firmly
into the orbit of India and China as
America recedes.
That's where I think the United States
and India have a shared interest. They
don't want to see Russia being pushed
into the Chinese orbit. And my view is
that American policies are making it
much more easy for Russia to be leaning
on China much more. Look, as far as this
argument that the US wants to punish
India for its dealings with Russia, for
its purchase of oil with Russia, America
continues to purchase materials from
Russia, US businesses, particularly
energy.
Do you think the US are being
hypocritical?
Yes, indeed they are. And it's evidently
so. As part of this meeting in
Anchorage, reporting tells us that uh US
businesses, particularly energy
companies, are looking at the Russian
market, are looking to get back in the
Russian market. The US is talking about
potentially buying ice breakers from
Russia. So what's good for the goose is
good for the ganda. And I think there's
a shared interest there. I think India
would be well United States and India
would both be well served if Russia were
a friend of both of those countries. And
I think if that's the agenda then fair
enough. But this is being gone about in
a way which is counterintuitive.
So they'd be well served economically
but not so much ideologically.
I think they'd be well served
strategically. If the if the Russians if
Russia was working well with the US and
India, it would mean that Russian
dependence on China would reduce. It
would mean that China, which is
America's spacing challenge, would be
isolated much more than it finds itself
today. And therefore, if that's the
objective, if the grand strategy is to
deal with China, which is America's
facing challenge, then this is not the
way to go about it.
Final words, do you think the 50%
tariffs on India will last?
I hope that better sense prevails. I I
hope that both governments uh can find a
way to work around what their immediate
concerns are and I'm quite optimistic
that sooner or later we will see uh you
know once inflation hits the US also
once American consumers pay more um once
the Indian side realizes how it can
figure out diversifying its exports
sooner or later both sides will be able
to work around a solution.
Manoj Kaval Armani uh talking to us from
Karnataka in India thank you very much
indeed for your insights. Thank you.